Editor's Synopsis
ADP Research challenges the prevailing narrative that knowledge work is declining in the age of artificial intelligence. Despite the professional and business services supersector slipping from a record 17.6% of U.S. private employment in January 2022 to 16.8% in January 2025, the authors argue this dip is misleading. The decline stems primarily from reductions in administrative and support roles — such as office managers, janitors, and security guards — which fell from 47.5% to 39.5% of the supersector's employment between 2020 and 2025, largely due to pandemic-driven shifts like remote work reducing demand for on-site support staff.
Within knowledge work itself, a clear divergence has emerged. Traditional professional services like legal, accounting, and architecture have lost employment share, while technology and research-oriented roles have surged. Computer programming and infrastructure jobs now constitute the largest share of the professional services supersector, and management, scientific, and technical consulting nearly doubled its share from 10.1% to 17.3% over five years. ADP Research's long-running studies also show that knowledge workers remain better paid, more engaged, more loyal, and less intimidated by AI than workers in routine jobs — suggesting that reports of knowledge work's demise are, as the authors note, greatly exaggerated.
