Goldman Sachs Research finds that AI's impact on the labor market is a two-sided story: while it displaces workers in some roles, it simultaneously boosts employment in occupations where it augments human capabilities. The analysis estimates AI has reduced US monthly payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs over the past year and raised the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage point, though the true aggregate impact is likely smaller when accounting for data center construction hiring and AI-driven productivity gains.

The research distinguishes between AI substitution (where AI replaces human labor) and AI augmentation (where AI complements human workers). Jobs with high augmentation potential—such as education workers, judges, and construction managers—have actually seen increased employment, adding about 9,000 jobs per month. This reflects Jevons paradox: when AI makes workers more productive, it lowers the cost per unit of output, which can increase demand enough to create net job gains. Meanwhile, roles like telephone operators, insurance claims clerks, and bill collectors face the highest substitution risk.

Notably, the negative effects of AI on job creation appear to fall disproportionately on younger, less-experienced workers. The framework combining AI displacement scores with an IMF-developed complementarity index offers a more nuanced view than earlier research, helping to clarify which professions stand to benefit from AI adoption and which are most vulnerable to disruption.